Jamaica’s demographic winter: a crisis ignored

THE EDITOR, Madam:

Jamaica is quietly sleepwalking into a demographic winter, a chilling reality that threatens not only our population numbers, but the very soul of our culture, productivity, and national identity. With a birth rate now below 1.7 children per woman, we are no longer replacing ourselves. A shrinking population means a shrinking workforce, an ageing society, and an economy losing its creative edge.

Fewer young people means fewer innovators, taxpayers, and producers. It means lower productivity and a growing dependency on imported labour. Yet, while the evidence mounts, Jamaica’s leadership remains in denial, distracted by short-term investments rather than long-term survival.

This crisis is the direct consequence of decades of misguided policy. When Jamaica embraced the slogan ‘Two is Too Many’, we accepted a dangerous narrative that saw fertility as a burden instead of a blessing. The National Family Planning Unit, once well-meaning, became the vanguard of a cultural shift away from family, faith, and African continuity. What was framed as “progress” was, in truth, population control. The Rastafarian community, long ridiculed for its warnings, might have been prophetic when it declared that family planning was an attempt to “kill out black people”.

For years the government, Church, and civil society have all turned a deaf ear. Instead of promoting family growth in a time of population decline, we doubled down on sterilisation and contraception campaigns that now leave us facing a national crisis. Today, the results are glaring: chronic labour shortages, an ageing workforce, and a widening social gap.

This contradiction is more than a policy failure; it is a moral betrayal. Jamaica cannot preserve its sovereignty or its identity if its people stop reproducing and its labour force is outsourced. If this trend continues unchecked, we might soon be teaching Mandarin in Kingston while our own children are missing from the classroom.

The fertility crisis is reversible, but it demands radical change. The Holness administration must treat this as the first order of national business. We need a national fertility recovery plan that:

• Reverses outdated anti-natalist policies;

• Provides economic and housing support for families;

• Restores value to marriage, parenting, and community life;

• Recognizes children as the foundation of national development.

Our future depends not only on GDP, but on the generations we are willing to create and nurture.

O. DAVE ALLEN

odamaxef@yahoo.com